AGP Executive Report

Middle East Tensions: US President Donald Trump said he cancelled a planned strike on Iran after Tehran and other regional countries asked for time to finalise a deal, with Israel joining the commitment; Trump’s conditions include the “immediate, complete and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, while warning the pause is only “subject to” rapid agreement. Diplomacy and Warnings: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned the US against any “adventurous action,” telling Turkish FM Hakan Fidan and Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir that Iran would respond decisively to any “aggression,” and said any US or Israeli attack would trigger a “decisive and proportionate” retaliation. Energy Corridor for Turkey-Iraq: Turkey and Iraq signed a one-year agreement to transport Iraqi crude via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Ceyhan port at a minimum 750,000 barrels per day, with both sides calling it a strategic milestone while work continues toward a longer-term framework. Turkey-Iraq Expansion: Ankara and Baghdad also moved to maximise pipeline use, with officials pointing to broader cooperation plans covering oil, electricity and water. Business Watch: Turkiye’s apparel exports dipped in the first half to $7.7bn but showed a June rebound, signalling improving momentum for the sector. Local/Regional Governance: Cyprus diplomacy remains stuck as UN chief Antonio Guterres’ visit produced limited progress, with confidence-building and crossing-point talks still unresolved.

Energy Diplomacy: Turkey and Iraq signed a one-year deal to keep the Kirkuk–Ceyhan crude pipeline running, guaranteeing at least 750,000 barrels per day while both sides negotiate a broader framework covering oil, electricity and water. Regional Security: The US urged Americans to reconsider travel to West Asia and warned of possible flight cancellations and airspace closures as tensions with Iran keep rising. Ukraine War: Russia launched another heavy missile and drone barrage on Kyiv, killing at least nine and wounding dozens, as the conflict grinds on amid renewed calls for air-defense support. Border Politics: EU officials said most people who entered Spain’s Ceuta enclave illegally have returned to Morocco, while Spain reported a rising death toll after the surge. Sports & Transfers: Trabzonspor denied any agreement for Mohamed Salah, even as reports said talks and offers were underway; meanwhile, FIFA dropped its plan to sell stakes in the World Cup after backlash. Local Governance: Turkey said it will resume consular and visa services in Benghazi, restoring operations after years of suspension. Wildfires: France reported major wildfire damage and warned conditions remain dangerous despite some humidity gains.

Lebanon Security Talks: After meeting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Türkiye is ready to join a new international security initiative for southern Lebanon once UNIFIL’s mandate ends at year-end, stressing Lebanon’s sovereignty and support for the Lebanese Armed Forces. Kyiv Under Missile Barrage: Russia launched another overnight barrage of ballistic missiles and drones on Kyiv, killing at least three and injuring more than a dozen, with reports of trapped residents after building collapses and fires—renewing pressure on Ukraine’s air defenses. Patriot License Uncertainty: US President Donald Trump said Washington has not made a final decision on licensing Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptor missiles, warning it must be “very careful” about who gets access to such advanced weapons. Hamas Financing Case in UK: A Turkish national, Mohammad Yousef Hasna, was charged in the US for allegedly funneling funds and supplies to Hamas via a “sham” charity, after his UK arrest and pending extradition. Wildfires in Southwest Türkiye: Firefighters battled wind-fueled blazes near Bodrum and inland, with authorities saying most fires were brought under control but teams stayed on alert as conditions remained risky. Aviation Disruption: Travelers flying from the UAE faced flight cancellations and advisories to arrive early and check updates amid summer peak demand.

Wildfires Watch: Turkey is still battling five active wildfires along the western and southern coasts, with the agriculture ministry warning the risk could run into next week as strong winds persist. Public Safety & Kids Online: A parliamentary commission on school incidents and child safety met students to discuss bullying and digital risks, including calls to limit smartphones for younger pupils. Charity Probe: Turkey has jailed seven people in the fourth phase of an AHBAP charity investigation, bringing the total arrested to 35 over allegations tied to donations after the 2023 earthquakes. Tourism Data: TurkStat says Q2 tourism revenue fell 2.6% year-on-year to $15.9bn as visitor numbers dropped 5.1%. Defense & Industry: Turkey’s KAAN fighter jet program advanced with pre-flight taxi tests for a new prototype, while Ankara also pushes for a post-UNIFIL security role in Lebanon. Right to Information: A report says more than half of requests to Turkish authorities between April and June went unanswered, and most replies lacked the requested details.

Lebanon Diplomacy: President Erdoğan met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Ankara, saying Türkiye wants a post-UNIFIL role in southern Lebanon’s security and will keep backing Beirut’s sovereignty, armed forces and reconstruction as UNIFIL’s mandate nears its end. Gaza Talks: Hamas says its leadership met Turkish FM Hakan Fidan on Gaza developments, while the US-backed “Board of Peace” announced “complete disarmament” talks—immediately challenged by Israel’s demand for full demilitarization. Opposition Crackdown: Ankara’s Etimesgut mayor Erdal Beşikçioğlu was detained in a corruption probe with dozens of officials and business figures, as Türkiye’s opposition reshuffles after CHP losses. Economy & Jobs: The Central Bank held rates at 37% and warned inflation risks; unemployment hit a record low 7.6% in June, with Şimşek stressing a productivity push. Tourism & Water: Booking.com is set to return to full domestic bookings after a nine-year ban; in Muğla, a new desalination plant aims to ease Bodrum’s summer water strain. Regional Trade: Türkiye plans to start work this year on the “Development Road” linking Iraq’s Grand Faw Port to Europe via rail, road and energy links. Black Sea Safety: Turkish and Azerbaijani officials protested repeated attacks on commercial shipping after drone strikes damaged a Turkish-owned vessel near Odesa. Industry: Türkiye overtook Germany to become the world’s seventh-largest crude steel producer in 2025, with output rising to 38.1 million tons.

NATO & Air Policing: Türkiye completed the deployment of five F-16 jets and crews to Estonia for a NATO enhanced air policing mission, stationed at Amari Air Base from Aug. 1 to Nov. 30, with Ankara set to take command from Portugal on Friday. Wildfires: Firefighters battled fast-moving blazes near Antalya and Aegean resorts like Fethiye and Ayvalık as strong winds reignited flames; officials reported 115 wildfires since Wednesday, with most brought under control. Lebanon Diplomacy: President Erdoğan told Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that Türkiye wants to join a new security initiative after UNIFIL’s mandate ends, stressing Lebanon’s sovereignty and offering support for rebuilding and regional stability. Regional Security Context: Aoun said any Turkish help should reinforce existing international support, while Turkey urged international backing for the framework deal’s conditions, including a synchronized Israeli withdrawal and monitoring. Maritime Disruption: A Russian-bound bulker broke down and ran aground in the Dardanelles; traffic was briefly suspended while divers inspected the hull, and tugs freed the vessel after about 12 hours. Local Governance Crackdown: Ankara prosecutors detained Etimesgut Mayor Erdal Beşikçioğlu and dozens in a corruption probe targeting opposition-run municipalities. Tourism Warning: A travel agent’s TikTok alert warned visitors about a “massive scam” involving shops pricing in euros or pounds instead of Turkish lira. Aviation Route: SunExpress will launch direct Almaty–Izmir flights starting July 31, twice weekly. Economy/Business: Burgan Bank reported H1’26 revenues of KD 138m, up 9% year-on-year, citing stronger net interest income and non-interest income.

Aviation & Defense: Turkish Aerospace (TAI) says it will resume T-70 utility helicopter production after US sanctions relief, with new export licenses and a fresh 39-unit agreement tied to improved Ankara-Washington ties. Wildfires: New blazes across southern Europe, including Greece and France, killed firefighters and forced evacuations, while fresh winds also stoked wildfire risk in Türkiye. Middle East Travel Disruption: Airlines keep suspending or cutting Gulf routes over security concerns, with Turkish Airlines resuming flights to Dubai and Abu Dhabi but still suspending Iran services. Cyprus Diplomacy: UN chief António Guterres wrapped a rare visit to Cyprus, touring a lab for identifying missing persons and pushing renewed talks on the island’s long division. Regional Security & Shipping: A call for a global maritime security coalition highlights how sanctions and regional frameworks shape enforcement against piracy, trafficking and other sea crimes. Turkey’s Economy Abroad: Turkish firms are increasingly using China’s manufacturing and logistics networks to expand exports and plug into global digital trade. Humanitarian & Social: A UNODC report ahead of World Day Against Trafficking in Persons says women and girls remain the most affected, with conflict and displacement increasing risks. Sports & Politics: FIFA opened disciplinary proceedings against Argentina over a Falklands banner and other alleged misconduct at the 2026 World Cup.

Istanbul Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Turkish police detained Üsküdar mayor Sinem Dedetas and 22 other municipal officials in separate raids, alleging bribery, extortion and permit-related irregularities, with investigations continuing across offices and residences. Cyprus Peace Push: UN chief António Guterres secured agreement to restart talks in a 5+1 format after a trilateral meeting in Nicosia, while Ankara reiterated its demand for a settlement based on sovereign equality and equal status for Turkish Cypriots. Wildfires Near Turkey’s Coast: Firefighters battled blazes near Mugla’s tourist areas and along the Aegean coast, evacuating residents and disrupting access to some sites as a new heatwave threat grows. Turkey-Iraq Energy Diplomacy: Turkey and Iraq renewed cooperation momentum as Ankara and Baghdad move to deepen trade and energy ties following pipeline talks, with oil supply targets again in focus. Regional Security & Markets: Oil prices jumped after US warnings of a forceful response to an alleged Iranian missile attack, while Jordan reported intercepting missiles launched from Iran.

Türkiye-Iraq Energy Reset: President Erdoğan said the Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude pipeline accord has expired and Ankara aims to sign a new, broader energy cooperation deal with Iraq, including a possible supply of up to 1 million barrels per day; he also announced TPAO will buy a 15% stake in BP’s Kirkuk unit. Development Road Push: Erdoğan and Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi in Ankara backed the “Development Road” transport corridor linking Iraq’s Gulf to Türkiye and onward to Europe, alongside cooperation on security, transport, water and counterterrorism. Kirkuk Deal Details: The BP-led Kirkuk redevelopment will keep BP at 43% and ConocoPhillips at 42%, with TPAO taking 15%, covering multiple fields and boosting Türkiye’s energy production targets. UN Cyprus Talks: UN chief António Guterres met Cyprus leaders in Nicosia as President Christodoulides said there is “no other option” but to resolve the Cyprus problem. UNESCO Heritage: Türkiye’s Istanbul will host the UNESCO World Heritage Committee in 2027. Gaza Civilian Impact: An Israeli strike in central Gaza destroyed a mosque and tents sheltering displaced families, leaving hundreds homeless.

Iraq-Türkiye Ties: President Erdoğan received Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi in Ankara for his first official visit since taking office, with talks expected to focus on investment, water resources, security and major infrastructure, including the Development Road corridor. Trade Facilitation: Turkish officials said customs integration at the Ibrahim Khalil crossing—linking it to Iraq’s automated customs system—could help both sides push toward a $30B trade target. Cyprus Diplomacy: UN chief António Guterres held separate meetings with Cyprus leaders ahead of renewed efforts to restart talks, while demonstrations marked his visit across Nicosia. Ukraine-US Defense: Zelenskyy hailed a “good meeting” with Trump at the White House, discussing licenses for Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptor missiles and broader cooperation. Sports Transfer Watch: Beşiktaş confirmed it has made a “final” offer to Mohamed Salah on its terms, while Salah’s camp weighs options with talks ongoing. Regional Business: Sanko plans a $300m integrated textile investment in Bangladesh, aiming to expand fabric and value-added production for global buyers.

F-35 Row: US President Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One that “nobody tells me what we should be selling,” backing a potential F-35 sale to Türkiye despite Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s objections, calling Ankara a “tremendous ally” as Netanyahu prepares talks in Washington. Cyprus Diplomacy: UN chief António Guterres arrived in Cyprus for a push to restart reunification talks, meeting President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman, with a tripartite meeting scheduled at the UN’s good offices. Migration Crackdown: Turkish authorities detained 12 Afghan nationals for irregular entry and arrested two suspected smugglers in Şırnak, fining those involved and transferring migrants to migration authorities. Palestine Cultural Ties: A Turkish artist’s Palestine-themed exhibition opened in Ramallah at the Mahmoud Darwish Museum, supported by TIKA, after the artist was unable to attend due to visa restrictions. Wildfire Watch: Türkiye’s latest wildfire updates say no major city/airport disruptions are reported, with risk staying elevated along the Aegean and Mediterranean coast through October. Turkey-Philippines Infrastructure: Ankara is seeking a bigger role in the Philippines’ infrastructure push, including railway projects already involving Turkish firm Gülermak, while also expanding agricultural exports like poultry.

Diplomacy in Ankara: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met US envoy Tom Barrack to boost Washington-Ankara cooperation, while Culture Minister Mehmet Nuri Ersoy also discussed deeper Türkiye-US tourism ties. Cyprus Push: Fidan met UN Cyprus envoy Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar ahead of UN chief António Guterres’ visit, with Ankara reiterating a two-state solution. Regional Calls: Erdoğan spoke by phone with Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev and Senegal’s Faye, focusing on trade, investment and defense cooperation. Opposition Shake-up: 280 former CHP lawmakers quit to back Özgür Özel’s New Party, further reshaping Turkey’s opposition landscape. F-35 Tensions: Trump dismissed Israeli objections to a potential F-35 deal with Türkiye, but the broader dispute over US conditions for Turkey’s return to the program remains unresolved. Sports Spotlight: Türkiye beat Brazil to win the Women’s Volleyball Nations League title, with Melissa Vargas named MVP. International Security: Houthis claimed they shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akıncı drone operated by Saudi Arabia over northern Yemen.

Middle East Diplomacy: Iran says it is exchanging messages with the US but insists “conditions for negotiations” are absent, blaming Washington’s strikes for destroying diplomacy and warning the Strait of Hormuz won’t be used to threaten Iran’s security. Regional Security: Yemen’s PM Shaya Zindani condemned Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping as an “Iranian agenda,” urging tougher international action to protect maritime corridors and freedom of navigation. Black Sea Fallout: Russia-linked strikes near Odesa led to the sinking of the Turkish-flagged Golden Leo, with reports of multiple deaths and the ship previously hit while carrying grain. Domestic Politics: Turkey’s opposition CHP faces a major split as 91 MPs break away to form a new party, raising fresh pressure on the anti-Erdogan bloc ahead of the 2028 presidential race. Sports (Turkey): Mohamed Salah’s Besiktas move appears close, with reports he has settled on shirt number 11 and the club waiting for his decision after a final offer. Economy/Markets: China set July 27 yuan parity rates, including a reference level for the Turkish lira.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran says a mine detonated after a tanker deviated from Tehran’s designated route, as US-Iran hostilities keep shipping rules in the spotlight. De-escalation Efforts: Iran reported a second night without US strikes while Pakistan and Qatar push mediation to broaden a de-escalation and restart talks. Maritime Security Moves: Iran’s IRGC Navy stopped six vessels for attempting “unauthorised” crossings; separately, Qatar fully resumed maritime navigation after a two-week suspension. Regional Fallout: Israel is reportedly weighing new maritime patrol aircraft amid concerns about naval threats, while in Yemen the Houthis claimed they shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akıncı drone. Turkey’s Diplomacy & Trade: Ankara expanded its trade diplomacy network to 115 countries, aiming for fresh export records. Domestic Justice: A new judicial hotline system is set to let citizens track court case progress, with “judicial efficiency offices” planned across all 81 provinces. Sports: Türkiye won the 2026 Women’s Volleyball Nations League title, beating Brazil 3-1 in Macao.

Central Banking: Türkiye’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 37% for a fourth straight meeting, saying tight policy will continue until price stability is reached as energy costs rise amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense Diplomacy: Saudi and Turkish defense ministers held talks by phone on boosting military cooperation and regional peace efforts. Ukraine Peace Push: Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev urged Russia and Ukraine to freeze the war and return to “Istanbul Formula 2.0,” while the Kremlin said freezing is impossible given Kyiv’s stance. US-Turkey F-35 Standoff: The US reiterated Turkey still hasn’t met conditions to rejoin the F-35 program, citing unresolved S-400 issues and future acquisition assurances. Regional Cooperation: Iraq’s cabinet approved activating the Iraq–Türkiye water framework, authorizing financing for projects from Sept. 1, 2026. Security & Mobility: Türkiye’s army chief returned after a five-day Türkiye visit, including meetings across the defense establishment and a wreath-laying at Anıtkabir. Weather Watch: Severe storms hit Türkiye, with warnings issued for 35 provinces.

Digital Rules: Turkey’s new digital advertising rules kick in Aug. 1, demanding clearer labels for AI-generated and sponsored content, tightening targeted ads, and banning profiling children using personal data. Ukraine War Diplomacy: Kazakhstan President Tokayev urged Putin to “freeze” the Ukraine conflict and return to the “Istanbul formula 2.0,” arguing peace talks need major-power guarantees. Defense Industry: Ukraine and Raytheon discussed boosting Patriot missile supplies and expanding joint production, as Russia’s strikes keep hitting targets across the region. Middle East Tensions: Yemen’s government vowed to keep working with the Saudi-led coalition to protect key waterways amid Houthi tensions, while Houthis claimed a missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jizan. Economy Watch: Deutsche Bank raised its Turkey inflation forecast to 30% and expects policy-rate cuts to start later, citing energy and geopolitical risks. Sports & Transfers: Besiktas is reportedly close to signing Mohamed Salah, while Fenerbahce denied offers for Rafael Leao and Ermedin Demirovic; Galatasaray also faced a 2-0 pre-season loss to Monza.