AGP Executive Report

Gaza Diplomacy: Hamas welcomed US President Donald Trump’s call for Israel to stop striking Gaza and urged Washington to press Israel to honor terms for the second phase of the Gaza peace plan, as ceasefire violations continue. Regional Security: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Turkey will not “run from war” while also calling for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen freely for oil flows; he framed the Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan “Mecca” joint defense pact as a collective-security message and said EU membership is no longer a priority. Counterterror Reach: Türkiye and partners continue tracking Islamic State networks in Afghanistan and beyond, with recent reporting highlighting ISIL-K/ISKP’s transnational operations and arrests tied to support networks. Defense Tech: Türkiye’s Marlin unmanned surface vessel has gained smart mine-laying capability after integrating Malaman sea mines. Aviation & Economy: Istanbul Airport set new daily passenger and flight records; Türkiye’s BIST 100 closed down 0.28% as markets watched inflation and budget figures. Sports—Local Interest: Trabzonspor’s Mohamed Salah impressed in his debut and is set for a first start soon, while Manchester United reiterated Bruno Fernandes is “not for sale at any price” despite Galatasaray interest.

Mecca Defence Pact: US President Donald Trump hailed the Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan Mecca Joint Defence Agreement as a “big, bold and important first step,” saying it shows the Middle East “coming together” and that the three can defend themselves more meaningfully. Gaza Diplomacy: Trump’s Gaza peace plan faces a fresh test as his envoys meet Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators in Cairo while Israel resumes airstrikes; Hamas officials attended talks, and Israel raised concerns over parts of the roadmap. Regional Condemnation: Foreign ministers from Türkiye and seven other countries condemned Israel’s rejection of the Gaza roadmap, saying it jeopardises efforts toward a just, lasting peace and Palestinian statehood. Energy & Output: Türkiye reported first-half 2026 oil and gas production of 23.1 million barrels and 1.641 billion cubic meters, led by the Gabar and Sakarya fields, with plans to boost Black Sea gas output. Maritime Tensions: Türkiye declared two national marine parks in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean via presidential decrees, drawing a sharp legal pushback from Greece. Disaster Preparedness: DASK warned 42% of Turkish homes still lack compulsory earthquake insurance more than 25 years after the 1999 Marmara quake. Security Crackdown: Türkiye detained 43 suspects over forest fires since June 1, with 11 remanded in custody.

Gaza Diplomacy: Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Nickolay Mladenov pushed fresh talks in Cairo with Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators as Israel kept up strikes and Hamas debated the roadmap’s next steps, with the key sticking point still whether Hamas disarms before Israeli withdrawal. MENA Defense Pact: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, formalizing an “attack on one is an attack on all” clause and expanding intelligence and defense cooperation. Libya Settlement Odds: Parliament MP Mohamed Al-Abani said closer Turkish-Egyptian alignment is improving chances for a real US-backed Libya settlement. Terror-Free Türkiye: Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş backed the “terror-free Türkiye” push, saying Turkey has no room for separatism or discrimination and pointing to PKK disarmament steps. Offshore Wind: Turkey set a first offshore wind tender for early 2027, targeting 5 GW by 2035 and announcing draft details ahead of COP31. Sports—Salah & Osimhen: Trabzonspor hailed Mohamed Salah’s signing as a bridge for Turkey-Egypt ties, while transfer chatter around Victor Osimhen and Arsenal continues amid Galatasaray’s hard line. Aviation & Travel: Pegasus reported a loss for Q2 as Middle East disruption hit demand, while Istanbul’s cargo growth and new flight links underline Turkey’s aviation momentum.

Mecca Pact Expansion: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Egypt could join the Türkiye–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, a collective-deterrence deal signed in Mecca that treats an attack on one member as an attack on all. Regional Security Tensions: Russia’s foreign ministry warned that any Turkish re-export of US weapons to Ukraine would “sour” relations and prolong the war, while Moscow also demanded explanations over possible arms shipments. Israel-Gaza Updates: Fresh Israeli strikes killed at least one Palestinian and injured seven more, as Gaza’s health authorities reported continued violations of the ceasefire. Turkish Politics & Law: Turkey’s parliament backed a “Terror-Free Türkiye” push, including a landmark law tied to the PKK disarmament process. Sports—Salah Debut: Mohamed Salah made his Trabzonspor debut as a substitute in a 1-1 draw with Kasimpasa, with the coach calling it a “sad and difficult” start ahead of European play-offs. Road Safety: A minibus crash en route to an engagement party in southeastern Türkiye killed seven people, including two children, and injured others; authorities launched an investigation. Aviation Disruption: Heathrow flooding and other travel disruptions were reported, with airlines urging passengers to check cancellations before flying.

Mecca Pact Expansion: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Egypt could join the Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan “Makkah peace agreement,” noting the pact’s collective-defense logic and calling it open to further members. Ukraine Arms Row: Russia demanded clarifications from the US and Turkey over reports of a possible transfer of US weapons to Kyiv, warning it could seriously damage relations and criticizing “peacekeeping” claims alongside arms shipments. Terror-Free Türkiye: Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş said the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process aims to end decades of conflict and build a stronger, terror-free region through unity at home and beyond. Gaza Oxygen Crisis: Gaza’s Health Ministry warned 22 of 34 oxygen stations are out of service due to the blockade and spare-part shortages, with remaining units at risk of shutting down. Turkey-Egypt Talks: Erdoğan also said he expects Trump to keep his F-35 promise, while Turkey and Egypt discussed deepening ties and regional security measures. Osimhen Transfer Buzz: Galatasaray reportedly ruled out selling Victor Osimhen to Arsenal before the window closes, even as the striker said he’ll focus on his job amid ongoing rumours. Local Safety Alert: In Düzce on the Black Sea coast, authorities said drone-like fragments were found in a garden and a judicial investigation is underway.

Middle East Diplomacy: Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran has not decided to resume indirect talks with the US, stressing mediator exchanges are not a return to negotiations, while talks with Oman continue on shipping-lane planning. Regional Security: Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s Mecca Joint Defence Agreement is still drawing debate, with Egypt saying it will study the pact “carefully” for legal and constitutional issues before any decision. Sports—Super Lig: Victor Osimhen scored twice as Galatasaray opened the 2026/27 season with a 2-2 draw against newly promoted Corum FK, after Corum led and a red card swung the late game; Osimhen also urged hard work ahead of Champions League. Transfers—Arsenal Link: Osimhen refused to rule out leaving Galatasaray amid Arsenal speculation, while Galatasaray president Dursun Özbek insists he will not sell Osimhen “no matter how much money it is.” Education Rights: Turkey’s education ministry has begun inspections at Istanbul’s Armenian schools, reportedly barring Armenian citizens from enrolling and pushing them toward Turkish public schools.

Black Sea Tensions: Russia rejected Turkey’s proposal for a moratorium on attacks on ships, saying it received no formal request and dismissed any “half-measures” as giving Ukraine a chance to rearm. Latvia Airspace Incident: NATO jets shot down a drone after it entered Latvian airspace near the Russian border; Turkish F-16s and Italian Eurofighters were scrambled, and officials linked the incursion to Russian electronic warfare. Regional Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan hit out at the Greece-Cyprus-Israel alliance during a visit to Egypt, while pushing Cairo to consider joining the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan “Mecca” defense framework. Defense Pact Fallout: Analysts and officials frame the Mecca pact as a verdict on American reliability, not a simple “Muslim NATO.” Kurdish Peace Law: Turkey’s parliament adopted a “Framework Law” tied to PKK/KCK disarmament conditions, with debate continuing over how it could reshape the Kurdish question. Human Rights: Political prisoner Sonay Mengütay was released after 30 years. Economy & Energy: Iraq’s oil exports hit about two million bpd in August, while reports say Turkey cut purchases of Russian Urals crude after Black Sea disruptions. Aviation & Travel: Turkish Airlines will add Chengdu from November, expanding its mainland China network. Business/Crime: Turkey repatriated alleged organized crime leader Serkan Kurtuluş from Argentina after a six-year extradition fight.

Inflation Watch: Turkey’s central bank raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 28%, citing war-driven energy costs and higher food prices, while saying the underlying trend hasn’t worsened. Fuel Relief: The government cut diesel ÖTV to zero for the rest of August, then plans phased reinstatements from September to ease cost and inflation pressure. Regional Security: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are set to deepen defence cooperation under the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, including joint land, naval and air exercises and a new high-level political-military mechanism. Diplomacy on Gaza: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara and Cairo agreed on stronger measures over Gaza after talks in El Alamein, also aligning on Libya’s unity. Culture & Heritage: Restoration has begun on Hatay’s 150-year-old Karasun Manuk Armenian Church, damaged in the 2023 earthquakes, with 5 million liras in support. Travel Disruption: UAE flight updates include multiple Etihad cancellations until Aug. 21 and other route changes—passengers are urged to check status before heading out.

Kurdish Peace Process: Turkey’s Parliament passed the “Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion,” and the DEM Party says it opens a “significant path” for resolving the Kurdish question, with the İmralı delegation meeting Erdoğan in Ankara to push the process forward. Security Operations: Turkish security forces launched a nationwide operation against the Suleymancilar religious community tied to alleged financial crimes; 30 suspects were detained out of 49, with warrants issued for others. Border Crackdown: Bulgarian and Romanian border police detained a truck carrying 18 irregular migrants (Iraq, Syria, Iran) at Vidin-Calafat, with the Turkish driver held as the case continues. Regional Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Egypt’s FM Badr Abdelatty met in El Alamein, calling for stronger measures over Gaza and deeper Ankara-Cairo cooperation. Black Sea Tensions: Ukraine proposed a deal to halt attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea to reopen a grain corridor, while NATO allies watch escalation risks. Sports & Culture: The 2027 Spanish Super Cup is set for Istanbul’s Atatürk Olympic Stadium; meanwhile, Arsenal are reportedly weighing Victor Osimhen as Galatasaray talks continue.

US-Turkey Security Drama: New reporting says the U.S. Secret Service moved President Donald Trump off Air Force One using a catering truck to a smaller jet during his Ankara NATO trip after a credible, imminent shoulder-fired missile threat tied to Iran—while journalists and even many officials believed he was still on the main aircraft. CIA Doubts: The Washington Post adds that CIA analysts had “low confidence” in Israeli-passed threat details that helped trigger the operation. Opposition Shake-up in Turkey: Jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu says he is joining the newly formed New Party after a court removed CHP leadership amid an opposition crackdown. Regional Diplomacy: Erdoğan met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara, stressing support for Palestine and discussing regional stability. Turkey’s Defense Update: Turkey’s Defence Ministry says an F-16 crashed during training in Yalova; the pilot ejected safely. Humanitarian/Arms Watch: Human Rights Watch urges the U.S. Congress to block transfer of cluster munitions from Turkish stockpiles to Ukraine. Sports—Big Transfer: Fenerbahçe confirmed Romelu Lukaku’s signing from Napoli.

U.S.-Turkey Security Drama: New reporting says Secret Service used a decoy Air Force One and moved President Donald Trump via a catering truck to a smaller jet after an Iran-linked missile threat, leaving the press pool on the original aircraft and sparking fresh backlash over how much staff were put at risk. Regional Diplomacy: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan pushed Ankara’s “One Libya” approach in talks across Tripoli and Benghazi, aiming to bridge Libya’s political and regional divides. Palestine: President Erdoğan met Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara, reiterating support for a Palestinian state on 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as capital and urging Gaza reconstruction to start immediately. Defense & Safety: Türkiye’s Defense Ministry said an F-16 crashed during a training flight in Yalova; the pilot ejected safely as an investigation begins. Ukraine Rights Update: Ukraine’s ombudsman said 375 Ukrainian POWs and civilian hostages died in Russian captivity, with 95% reportedly subjected to torture. Football Transfers: Fenerbahçe officially signed Romelu Lukaku from Napoli, while Galatasaray reportedly tabled a major bid for Arsenal winger Gabriel Martinelli.

Turkey’s “Terror-Free Türkiye” push: Parliament approved the National Solidarity and Social Integration bill after nearly 12 hours of debate, setting a deferred-prosecution framework for PKK-related offenses if the group ceases activity and surrenders weapons, with security checks and a National Security Council confirmation required. Critical minerals drive: Türkiye plans two interagency bodies to coordinate policy on critical minerals and raw materials, aiming to boost domestic production and cut supply risks for defense, energy and high-tech industries. Language heritage mapping: The Turkish Language Association (TDK) is preparing projects including an etymological dictionary, a dialect atlas and a Turkish language museum in Ankara to document roots and regional diversity. Tourism in the heartland: Cappadocia visitors in Avanos are enjoying gondola rides on the Kızılırmak around the historic “swinging bridge,” offering a calmer alternative to balloons and horseback. Culture at Troy: The 63rd Troia Festival opened amid the ruins of Troy, with Çanakkale officials framing it as a “city of peace” message to the world. Global security ripple: Reports say US President Donald Trump secretly swapped planes after an Iranian assassination threat during the NATO summit in Ankara, using a catering truck to move him to an alternate aircraft.

PKK Peace Framework: Turkey’s parliament has passed the “Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion,” setting a conditional pardon for thousands of Kurdish militants, with measures only taking effect after authorities verify full disarmament—sparking relief and uncertainty in Diyarbakır. Political Debate: EMEP criticized the government’s handling of the Kurdish question and urged broader democratic steps, while KNK called the framework a milestone but said it’s not enough for a lasting political solution. COP31 Climate Delivery: A new push for COP31 focuses on turning Türkiye’s climate promises into bankable projects—clear permitting, grid connections, and steady reporting to attract investment. Arctic Science: Türkiye’s sixth National Arctic expedition (TASE-VI) wrapped up with 12 projects studying polar ecosystems, Arctic birds, and microplastic pollution up to 82 degrees north. Regional Diplomacy: Erdoğan is set to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara. Trade & Economy: Turkish Mediterranean exporters shipped $16.8M+ in cereals, pulses, oilseeds and related products to Iraq in July, with pulses and vegetable oils leading. Sports Media: beIN SPORTS will broadcast the 2026-27 European football season across MENA, starting with the UEFA Super Cup on Aug. 12. International Shock: Reports say US President Trump secretly swapped planes during his Turkey trip amid an alleged Iranian assassination threat, using an Air Force One decoy and a catering truck ruse.

Terror-Free Türkiye Law: Türkiye’s parliament passed a landmark 12-article “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law, setting procedures to suspend cases and penalties tied to the PKK after security checks confirm disarmament and the end of operational activity, with a cross-party vote of 468-88. Middle East Flashpoint: A Houthi drone strike hit Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery, reigniting regional tensions just after the Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan Mecca defense pact. Trump Exit Ruse: Multiple reports say US President Donald Trump was secretly moved from a decoy Air Force One in Ankara to a smaller military jet using an airport catering truck after an Iranian assassination threat. Regional Security Diplomacy: Israel’s operations in southern Lebanon continued amid ceasefire violations, while Abbas is reported to be visiting Türkiye to brief Erdogan on Gaza and West Bank developments. Local Life & Culture: In Kocaeli, Sarısu Stream canoe routes are drawing more visitors, and Istanbul’s boutique pastry scene is booming with social-media-driven custom orders. Heritage & Science: Gordion’s Midas Tumulus has yielded a rare wooden tomb linked to Gordias, and Turkish researchers warn Aegean coral ecosystems need urgent joint protection.

Makkah Defence Pact: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif told a cabinet meeting the Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan “Makkah Joint Defence Agreement” is “entirely defensive,” aimed at peace, security and prosperity, and not directed at any country. Black Sea Security: Turkey urged Russia and Ukraine to halt attacks on commercial vessels and pushed for a moratorium as shipping risks keep rising. Turkish Media Crackdown: Police detained sports journalist Burhan Can Terzi over a false transfer claim about Bayern’s Jamal Musiala to Galatasaray, then released him hours later. Airlines & Trade: Turkish Airlines reported strong cargo momentum and resilient passenger demand, while maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly dipped sharply over the weekend. Jobs Portal: Türkiye launched an official government website (İŞKUR) letting foreigners from any country search and apply for jobs by skill set. Human Rights: Rights groups renewed calls to fix long-running harms from post-2016 coup emergency decrees affecting dismissed public servants and their families.

“Terror-Free Türkiye” Bill: Turkey’s parliament is set for a final Aug. 10 vote on the framework bill behind the “terror-free Türkiye” process, after it cleared the Justice Commission; the plan would defer cases for five years only after PKK/KCK-linked structures are deemed to have ceased operations and surrendered weapons. Makkah Joint Defence Agreement: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca pact, treating an attack on one as an attack on all, with Turkish FM Hakan Fidan saying it mirrors NATO’s Article 5 but is not aimed at Iran; Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar adds it’s “purely defensive” and open to other regional countries. Black Sea Shipping Squeeze: Escalating Russia-Ukraine attacks are disrupting Black Sea grain and energy routes, raising war-risk costs and reducing port capacity as shipowners avoid Ukrainian calls. Hormuz Standoff: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US meets demands including sanctions relief and compensation, while an Oman deal is said to be in “final stages.” Energy Update: Türkiye’s deep-sea drillship Abdülhamid Han has drilled 20 wells since 2022, with current work in the Black Sea. Defense Exports: STM launched the third corvette for Malaysia’s Littoral Mission Ship program, with delivery due in 2027. Economy: Turkey’s consumer prices rose 1.78% in July, easing annual inflation to 31.75%.